Snow Bull’s Tesla sales estimates between now and 2040
2/ Yesterday, we shared our passenger EV estimates through 2040. First, it is important to understand how much EV estimates 20 years out can vary.
— Snow Bull Capital (@snowbullcapital) November 20, 2020
https://t.co/5jWyy3vhBV
4/ Among EV estimates for 2024, BNEF & Deloitte are forecasting ~7.4M EV sales, S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates 6.2M, and we are forecasting 11.4M.
— Snow Bull Capital (@snowbullcapital) November 20, 2020
Our 2024 estimate is more bullish than most.
6/ Unsurprisingly, we believe Tesla will lose market share in the passenger EV space globally after it peaks next year. Market share peaks vary by region mainly due to EV/AV policy. pic.twitter.com/FjAzb9E9pb
— Snow Bull Capital (@snowbullcapital) November 20, 2020
8/ Forecasting Tesla to have an 18% market share in 2024 is fine (ours is 18.29%), but we see no chance of Tesla selling 7.1M cars in 2024; we don't see Tesla ever selling >7M cars in a year.
— Snow Bull Capital (@snowbullcapital) November 20, 2020
Follow @snowbullcapital10/ We have also broken down Tesla’s sales by model based on current timelines for future product rollouts. In the long-term, the lower-priced models (3/Y/$25k model) will be Tesla’s best-selling. pic.twitter.com/RLcPNpKnyb
— Snow Bull Capital (@snowbullcapital) November 20, 2020
