US Public EV Chargers Analysis
2/ First, here are the alternative fuel stations (stalls) in the US, excluding electric. Yawn. pic.twitter.com/ISxRMthu6H
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) December 16, 2021
4/ When you overlay it with EV charger stocks $BLNK $VLTA $CHPT $EVGO $BEEM , there isn't strong correlation; the brink of the hockey stick curve for EV chargers was ~2017, 1) when all but two EV charger stocks were still private, & 2) the EV charger stock surge was Q4 2020. pic.twitter.com/uxRJMCwICf
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) December 16, 2021
6/ Looking at the big picture:
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) December 16, 2021
1) There isn't much proprietary TECH in EV charger companies, at least not that we've seen.
2) There's a lot of blind money being thrown at the EV space.
3) Range anxiety has recently dwindled thanks to greater public awareness & better range EVs
8/ If you're curious where public EV chargers are located in the U.S... pic.twitter.com/4Tr82G68to
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) December 16, 2021
10/ If annual EV charger installs continue at the growth rate of new charger installs in the last nine years, there would be 4.4M EV chargers in the US by 2030 (1.4M installed in 2030).
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) December 16, 2021
We estimate quite a bit lower: 2.3M total by 2030 (499k installs in 2030). pic.twitter.com/sga8GzXWZR
12/ We estimate the decline in EVs/charger will settle around 10 in the next few years and remain there for a while. There are a lot of factors baked in here: rise of ride-share, higher % of one-car-families switching to EVs, urban mobility impact, etc.
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) December 16, 2021
14/ China is also much more urban (greater need for public L2 charging piles due to less residential charging) and much less sprawling (less need for L3 b/w cities) than the US.
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) December 16, 2021
16/ So China has more EVs, more chargers, but fewer EVs/charger. That's fine. It's working out well for them. Again, the US is so sprawling, so that has a big effect.
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) December 16, 2021
18/ Map time! We looked at the zip code of every public EV charger in the US (because zip codes are as granular as you can get), and mapped the zip codes that have zero public EV chargers.
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) December 16, 2021
37.26% of the US population has no public EV chargers in their zip code. pic.twitter.com/8zDbOUCpZN
20/ The red map may look like a massive EV charger desert, but similar to the electoral college, population density is most important. The public EV charger heatmap looks almost identical to a population heatmap and to a heatmap of EV registrations, plus major highway corridors. pic.twitter.com/OMxccboAO4
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) December 16, 2021
22/ There may be opportunities when the bigger networks begin charging drivers $ to charge. As we pointed out yesterday, in cities, almost all of the chargers are free to charge. Level 3 chargers along highways are typically the first to charge drivers. https://t.co/e6YS0cfatE
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) December 16, 2021
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— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) December 16, 2021
I think people overthink EV chargers. Are they important? Yes. Are they difficult to scale? Not at all. Do we have enough? Arguably, yes. Will EV chargers grow at the same rate as EVs? No.
The tech is in the cars, not the chargers.
