Poking Holes in ARK Invest’s 2022 Tesla Model
2/ Last year, ARK had 17,640 human-driven Teslas coming onto a non-existent Tesla ride-hail network in 2021.
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) April 21, 2022
In this year's model, ARK has 29,293 Teslas coming on in 2022, bear case. Again, this network doesn't exist, nor has Tesla hinted it ever will. https://t.co/A4e7X5mab7
4/ ARK doesn't stagger vehicles coming onto any platform, and has never modeled this correctly. I went into this more last year. It looks like they tried to do a midpoint thing (row 61), but that isn't how it works. https://t.co/SSDIq1abSn
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) April 21, 2022
6/ Again with the empty cell reference, which is defended by, "Note that we assume that in 2024 Tesla stops using the majority of its excess cash to buy new property plant and equipment."
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) April 21, 2022
1) Your years are off.
2) WTF? So it just goes to zero? https://t.co/DGNnN6cZYf pic.twitter.com/2gOfRUA2t5
8/ ARK figures an enterprise multiple of 13x for Tesla's EV biz, because that's what Daimler is (?), 10x for Tesla's insurance biz, because that's "roughly equivalent to industry average", and 19x for the robotaxi biz, which is "Much less than industry average for software." Huh?
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) April 21, 2022
10/ If you hold constant ARK's enterprise multiples, ARK's BULL assumptions suggest a market cap of $327B this year (69% lower than $TSLA 's current market cap), and $700B in 2023. Maybe that's why ARK is selling $TSLA ? pic.twitter.com/qUaZrB9XG8
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) April 21, 2022
12/ What happens if Tesla's robotaxi business has a negative EV/EBITDA, like $LYFT ? It destroys ARK's model. In the bull case, Lyft's -13.8x EV/EBITDA would throw ARK's 2026 suggested share price to -$1,147. Yes, negative. Bear case would be $1,210.
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) April 21, 2022
14/ There's so much more that just doesn't make any sense in this model, & plenty more crazy assumptions, like # of vehicles sold, or that 31% of all new Teslas sold in 2026 will be fed into the non-existent human-driven ride-hail network (bear case), etc. https://t.co/1Pg41Rt6q7
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) April 21, 2022
Follow @snowbullcapital Follow @TaylorOgan15/ These are just some initial takeaways from three sets of eyes looking at the model for a few hours. Many thanks to @conor__dalton & @Real_Jack_Shea.
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) April 21, 2022
