2/ This may surprise you, but from the very beginning (2016), Tesla defined of what exactly it intended FSD to one-day be capable:

This is from Tesla's website in 2016, when it began offering Full Self-Driving Capability. pic.twitter.com/3Jf5C7tVbL

— Bridget McCarthy (@bridgemccarthy_) March 9, 2021

4/
"park seek mode" + "summons it back to you"

is now called

"Autopark" + "Summon" + "Smart Summon" pic.twitter.com/ASVTsUHP8F

— Bridget McCarthy (@bridgemccarthy_) March 9, 2021

6/
"manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs"

is now called

"Traffic and Stop Sign Control" https://t.co/1yxNdNVMOU

— Bridget McCarthy (@bridgemccarthy_) March 9, 2021

8/ Tesla's "Full Self-Driving" will be what Tesla and @elonmusk refer to as "feature complete" when customers who paid for the "Full Self-Driving Capability" option (currently a $10,000 add-on) are sent Autosteer on City Streets (AKA "City Streets") OTA. pic.twitter.com/s8mnWV9fiQ

— Bridget McCarthy (@bridgemccarthy_) March 9, 2021

10/ Based on the videos from FSD Beta testers, it looks like Elon Musk and Tesla will soon be able to declare Full Self-Driving a victory. "City Streets" is the last feature required for FSD, as has always been stated by Tesla.

— Bridget McCarthy (@bridgemccarthy_) March 9, 2021

12/ What Tesla has achieved is undoubtedly impressive, and is why people, such as I, paid up to $10,000 for FSD.

Tesla has made the driving experience more fun, relaxing, and safe, as long as the driver is paying attention and ready to take over.

— Bridget McCarthy (@bridgemccarthy_) March 9, 2021

14/ This is where the recently released emails come in. The emails between Tesla and @CA_DMV confirm that FSD is close to feature complete; the last piece of the FSD suite, City Streets, will remain "...SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance," in its "final release," says Tesla. pic.twitter.com/fkqMUrnlpw

— Bridget McCarthy (@bridgemccarthy_) March 9, 2021

16/ Many robotaxi hopefuls are arguing that Tesla wouldn't want to be fully cooperative with regulators, or that this doesn't exclude the possibility of future features beyond Level 2 and that City Streets is just a "subset" of the FSD suite. Again, City Streets is the last step.

— Bridget McCarthy (@bridgemccarthy_) March 9, 2021

18/ I'm sure Tesla will; however, that will require new hardware, and much more time & data. FSD HW has inherent blind spots, the FSD computer is already running as hard as it can, etc.

(If you want to have the HW debate, please do so in my other threads specifically on AV HW.)

— Bridget McCarthy (@bridgemccarthy_) March 9, 2021

20/ "But what about what Elon said at Autonomy Day?"

We know Elon didn't hit his goal of "one million robotaxis by the end of 2020."

I think that was just Elon going off script. Note the bottom left of the slide re: FSD HW. That's probably all he was supposed to say. pic.twitter.com/2hItoDqJ3X

— Bridget McCarthy (@bridgemccarthy_) March 9, 2021

22/ "But never doubt Elon!"

To that, Elon says: pic.twitter.com/Fdo9KGkmC1

— Bridget McCarthy (@bridgemccarthy_) March 9, 2021

End/ Is Tesla close to delivering feature complete FSD? Yes.

Will Tesla deliver a Level 5 car this year? Absolutely not.

Can my car drop me off at work and generate income as a robotaxi? Not with FSD.

Will Tesla still be one of the winners in autonomy in 10 years? I'd say so.

— Bridget McCarthy (@bridgemccarthy_) March 9, 2021