2/ As @TaylorOgan pointed out yesterday, Tesla will need a lot more auto factories than what it currently has planned if it wants to meet our estimate of 5.2M auto sales in 2030, and significantly more if Tesla is to meet its own 2030 goal of 20M sales. https://t.co/vDCVcv9uMM

— Jack Shea (@Real_Jack_Shea) January 22, 2021

4/ Even by our estimates, which are much lower than @elonmusk 's, Tesla will have trouble sourcing enough batteries. https://t.co/zOfYzEU7H2

— Jack Shea (@Real_Jack_Shea) January 22, 2021

6/ We applied the weighted proportions from our estimates (by model) to Tesla's goal of 20M sales in 2030, and determined Tesla will need 1.47TWh of batteries. In that case, Tesla would require 7.6x more batteries than were produced for EVs GLOBALLY in 2020. pic.twitter.com/jlzIPN4v5x

— Jack Shea (@Real_Jack_Shea) January 22, 2021

8/ Beyond all of the unknowns of such a feat (raw materials sourcing, building new factories, astronomical CAPEX, the technology in the first place i.e. extracting battery-grade lithium from TABLE SALT, etc.), Tesla wouldn't need that capacity to meet its 20M goal.

— Jack Shea (@Real_Jack_Shea) January 22, 2021

10/ Tesla will need 1.12TWh of batteries between now and 2027 to meet our estimates. While ambitious, Tesla has no plans in place with GF1 (Panasonic), Kato Road (Tesla), LG Chem, Panasonic (18650), or CATL to come anywhere close to scaling to that level of capacity.

— Jack Shea (@Real_Jack_Shea) January 22, 2021

12/ What we don't think is possible is Tesla scaling enough batteries for 20M EVs in 2030. Even if 4680 cell production somehow scales as "planned", they would only cover 21% of the batteries Tesla needs.

— Jack Shea (@Real_Jack_Shea) January 22, 2021

13/ Plain and simple, not nearly enough battery factories are even currently planned to supply Tesla with enough batteries for 20M EVs in 2030. A new 40GWh battery factory would need to be built every quarter, starting today, for 20M Teslas in 2030.

— Jack Shea (@Real_Jack_Shea) January 22, 2021