2/ First, Elon said, "The number to...focus on is like we've got a 100GWh total Tesla cells produced in 2022."

Did he mean 4680 cells produced by Tesla, or did he mean 100GWh of total cells coming from Panasonic, CATL, LG Chem, & Tesla? Some people think he meant the former.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) January 28, 2021

4/ Then Drew chimes in and admits Tesla, "...can be off a little bit on the initial part of the S curve, and that makes a difference in absolute capacity by quite a bit, one month to the next."

So the S-curve is shifted to the right.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) January 28, 2021

6/ Keep in mind we don't know what production to expect from that 60GWh nameplate capacity (if that can even be achieved) of 4680 Tesla cells. Utilization could theoretically be 0% by December 31, 2022, and Elon would have technically hit his target.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) January 28, 2021

7/ It is becoming more obvious just how dependent Tesla is and will be on battery suppliers. Panasonic, CATL, and LG Chem will have difficulty ramping even faster.

...and people wonder why we like BYD so much ;)

See our most recent battery thread here: https://t.co/vDCoIVdOTU

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) January 28, 2021

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