2/ Our S/X production estimates were off by only 149 vehicles, & S/X delivery estimates by 700. We thought there would be a bit more inventory this quarter, but our accuracy here is pretty consistent with previous quarters, as we used the same methods. 3/Y is where it was hard.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) October 8, 2020

4/ As for 3/Y, the first aspect we overshot was not thinking Tesla had started VIN binning Model Y yet. We think Tesla is assigning actual Model Ys to ~82-85% of VINs in the VIN batch they registered for with NHTSA.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) October 8, 2020

6/ That’s really what put a stop to Bloomberg’s Model 3 Tracker. We’ve spoken with @TroyTeslike extensively about Tesla’s history of doing this. He has great insight on this. Here's what he said on it back in 2018 when Tesla started VIN binning Model 3. https://t.co/4rC2BfZHJy

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) October 8, 2020

8/ We didn’t anticipate Tesla VIN binning so drastically this early into Model Y production, which we think overshot our Model Y production estimates by 6,186. The next part where we were overly ambitious was Giga Shanghai.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) October 8, 2020

10/ GA3 has been Tesla’s general assembly blueprint upon which future assembly lines will be based. Initially, GA3 was hyper-automated for Model 3 production. Amid “production hell” in 2018, Elon said, “Excessive automation [on GA3] was a mistake.” So they built the tent.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) October 8, 2020

12/ We now think the new 3/Y lines at Giga Shanghai will be the template for highly automated batch production, upon which GA5 at Fremont will likely be based. Tesla has been posting a lot of job openings for new general assembly production at Shanghai over the past few months.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) October 8, 2020

14/ The most automated automotive assembly lines in the world are in China. Tesla is trying to poach many Chinese engineers from other highly automated lines. In some cases, even, Tesla has reached out directly to the lead engineers of these lines with attractive offers.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) October 8, 2020

16/ What we discern from this very clearly shows GA3 is nowhere near full capacity, or at least the capacity Tesla wished it could reproduce at GF3. It seems Giga Shanghai is being built from a near-clean slate relative to GA3. This is a big deal.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) October 8, 2020

18/ It may take GF3 a bit longer to ramp the newest Model Y line, but when it is firing on all cylinders, it will be the most efficient and impressive assembly line in automotive history.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) October 8, 2020

20/ The 10-day shutdown of GF3 at the end of the quarter was supposed to be retooling of existing Model 3 lines, and we anticipated new GAs for 3/Y to be the focus. While the September numbers aren’t yet out, it seems a factory-wide slowdown/halt did occur.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) October 8, 2020

22/ From this quarter on, it will be increasingly more difficult to quantifiably project even a quarter out where Tesla will be, given new factories, new GAs with different approaches, new models, the state of FSD, 4680 cell production, increased competition in China/Europe, etc

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) October 8, 2020

If this doesn’t become the new model for investing, I’ll have to find a new industry.

— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) October 8, 2020

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